Writing — Aaron Trubic

The book, the newsletter, and the work behind them.

I write about how organizations make decisions with incomplete information. The work has two anchors.

The Shape of Outcomes is my book on why intelligent organizations repeatedly fail in the same way. It traces a single pattern across five case studies — the October 7 intelligence failure, the 2008 financial crisis, Nokia's collapse, Long-Term Capital Management, and Deepwater Horizon — and introduces a structural fix: a twelve-lens analytical methodology that produces competing scenarios from the same evidence. Published on Kindle in May 2026.

Chubby Tails is the Substack. Geopolitics and tail risk for general readers. The premise is that fat-tailed events drive most of what matters and most analysis ignores them. The newsletter looks at where the tails actually are — antibiotic resistance, undersea cable vulnerability, evidence erosion through deepfakes, the Kessler syndrome — and uses the Vektora methodology to think through them.

For speaking, podcast, or media inquiries related to the book or the methodology, the contact details are on this page. For everything else — advisory work, Vektora, my background — see aarontrubic.com.